Kidderminster HarriersvsSolihull Moors

Clevertips match analysis

Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors: match review and analysis

Recent team results and head-to-head history provide background for this fixture.

Kidderminster Harriers recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Solihull Moors recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses, with 12 scored and 22 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Kidderminster Harriers: (1.03 weighted goals scored + 2.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.70 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Solihull Moors: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 0.79 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.99 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.