USL League One · Group Stage
Fort WaynevsSarasota Paradise
Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise in USL League One on 17 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Clevertips · Match preview
17 October 2026
Prediction
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Game statistics
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL League One — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Fort Wayne are ranked 8 in USL League One, with 45 points from 30 games.
Sarasota Paradise are ranked 11 in USL League One, with 36 points from 29 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 63 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 52 |
| 4 | Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 36 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 46 | 40 | 6 | 50 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 43 | 7 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Naples | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 36 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Corpus Christi | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Alta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 33 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 27 |
| 16 | NY Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 59 | -23 | 25 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 23 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
PREVIOUS MEETINGS
Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise
Previous head-to-head results are not available yet.
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Match information
- Competition
- USL League One
- Venue
- Ruoff Mortgage Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Next five games for each club
Fort Wayne
No upcoming fixtures are available.
Sarasota Paradise
No upcoming fixtures are available.
Clevertips match analysis
Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise: match review and analysis
Recent team results and head-to-head history provide background for this fixture.
Fort Wayne recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 13. Sarasota Paradise recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 24 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Fort Wayne | Sarasota Paradise |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 24 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Fort Wayne: (1.76 weighted goals scored + 1.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Sarasota Paradise: (2.49 weighted goals scored + 1.26 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.87 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Fort Wayne recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union OmahaUSL League One | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Corpus ChristiUSL League One | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Forward MadisonUSL League One | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Charlotte IndependenceUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NaplesUSL League One | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| One KnoxvilleUSL League One | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Greenville TriumphUSL League One | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| NY CosmosUSL League One | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Richmond KickersUSL League One | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Portland Hearts of PineUSL League One | Away | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Fort Wayne’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Sarasota Paradise recent form
2.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond KickersUSL League One | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Charlotte IndependenceUSL League One | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Portland Hearts of PineUSL League One | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Greenville TriumphUSL League One | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Forward MadisonUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Spokane VelocityUSL League One | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NY CosmosUSL League One | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Union OmahaUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Chattanooga Red WolvesUSL League One | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Charlotte IndependenceUSL League One | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sarasota Paradise’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 15 seconds.