Championship · Regular Season - 11

FULL-TIME

Derby0–1Stoke City

Derby vs Stoke City in Championship on 17 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.

Clevertips · Match result · 17 October 2026 · Times in UTC.

Match events

Match events are not yet available.

Prediction details

Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.

The saved statistics and match events from each team’s previous ten games appear in the recent-results section below.

Current league table

Latest saved positions for the teams in this match.

Current standings for Derby and Stoke City
#TeamPWDLGPTS
23.Derby101369:196
8.Stoke City1051417:1616

P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · G: goals for:against. Full standings remain in the Table tab.

Prediction saved

Match information

Competition
Championship
Venue
Pride Park Stadium
Status
Match Finished
Score
0–1
90-minute score
0–1
Last updated

Next five games for each club

Derby

No upcoming fixtures are available.

Stoke City

No upcoming fixtures are available.

Clevertips match analysis

Derby vs Stoke City: match review and analysis

Recent team results and head-to-head history provide background for this fixture.

Derby recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 19. Stoke City recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 17 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.

Recent form comparison before kickoff
StatisticDerbyStoke City
Games1010
Wins15
Draws32
Losses63
Goals scored917
Goals conceded1915
Over 1.5 games99

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Derby: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 1.52 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.19 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Stoke City: (1.74 weighted goals scored + 1.89 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.82 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Model goals comparison · shared scale from 0 to 6
Derby 1.19
Stoke City 1.82

The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.

Recent results, stats and events

Expand any of the previous ten games to see its saved statistics and match events. Only data already stored for that fixture is shown.

LAST 10 GAMES

Derby recent form

1Wins
3Draws
6Losses
9Goals scored
19Goals conceded
1Clean sheets

0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.

Derby goals trendGreen circles: goals scored. Orange squares: goals conceded. Oldest game on the left; latest on the right. Read the table below for each score. 40OldestLatest
● Scored ■ Conceded · Regular-time goals
Recent results before this match · newest first
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
QPRChampionshipAway1–4Lost
View saved statistics and events

Game statistics

QPRStatisticDerby
2.05expected_goals1.02
360Passes accurate366
6Shots insidebox12
3Shots outsidebox3
10Free Kicks10
7Shots on Goal6
5Goalkeeper Saves3
2Shots off Goal5
439Total passes466
9Total Shots15
2Yellow Cards4
1Corner Kicks3
0Blocked Shots4
0Offsides3
10Fouls10
0Red Cards0
48%Ball Possession52%

Stats updated

Match events

  1. 12′subst · Substitution 1 · Sondre Langas · Assist: Ryan Nyambe Derby
  2. 18′Goal · Normal Goal · Alfie Lloyd · Assist: Boy Kemper QPR
  3. 22′Goal · Penalty · Nicolas Madsen QPR
  4. 24′Card · Yellow Card · D. Ozoh Derby Foul
  5. 28′Card · Yellow Card · John Eustace Derby Dissent
  6. 44′Card · Yellow Card · Sammie Szmodics Derby Foul
  7. 45′Goal · Normal Goal · Harvey Vale QPR
  8. 45′Card · Yellow Card · Alex Mowatt Derby Dissent
  9. 45′subst · Substitution 2 · D. Ozoh · Assist: Lewis Travis Derby
  10. 45′subst · Substitution 3 · Mohammed Fuseini · Assist: Henrik Wendel Meister Derby
  11. 56′Card · Yellow Card · Henrik Wendel Meister Derby Foul
  12. 57′Card · Yellow Card · Harvey Vale QPR Dissent
  13. 60′Card · Yellow Card · Glen Kamara QPR Foul
  14. 62′subst · Substitution 1 · Rayan Jawad Kolli · Assist: Richard Kone QPR
  15. 62′subst · Substitution 2 · Alfie Lloyd · Assist: Jonathan Varane QPR
  16. 62′subst · Substitution 3 · Harvey Vale · Assist: Kwame Poku QPR
  17. 63′subst · Substitution 4 · Carlton Morris · Assist: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen Derby
  18. 68′Goal · Normal Goal · Paul Smyth · Assist: Nicolas Madsen QPR
  19. 70′subst · Substitution 5 · Sammie Szmodics · Assist: Filip Bilbija Derby
  20. 72′subst · Substitution 4 · Boy Kemper · Assist: Amadou Salif Mbengue QPR
  21. 77′subst · Substitution 5 · Paul Smyth · Assist: Leon Scarlett QPR
  22. 90+10′Goal · Normal Goal · Lars-Jørgen Salvesen Derby

Events updated

WrexhamChampionshipHome1–1Draw
View saved statistics and events

Game statistics

Statistics are not saved for this match yet.

Match events

Match events are not saved for this match yet.

BurnleyChampionshipAway1–1Draw
View saved statistics and events

Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

BirminghamChampionshipHome1–2Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

West BromChampionshipHome0–1Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

West HamChampionshipAway0–3Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

PortsmouthChampionshipAway2–0Won
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

SwanseaChampionshipHome0–3Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

CardiffChampionshipHome2–2Draw
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

CharltonChampionshipAway1–2Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

Scores shown from Derby’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.

LAST 10 GAMES

Stoke City recent form

5Wins
2Draws
3Losses
17Goals scored
15Goals conceded
2Clean sheets

1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.

Stoke City goals trendGreen circles: goals scored. Orange squares: goals conceded. Oldest game on the left; latest on the right. Read the table below for each score. 40OldestLatest
● Scored ■ Conceded · Regular-time goals
Recent results before this match · newest first
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
MiddlesbroughChampionshipHome2–3Lost
View saved statistics and events

Game statistics

Stoke CityStatisticMiddlesbrough
1Shots on Goal9
5Shots off Goal5
8Total Shots20
2Blocked Shots6
5Shots insidebox16
3Shots outsidebox4
9Fouls11
4Corner Kicks3
1Offsides1
34%Ball Possession66%
1Yellow Cards1
7Goalkeeper Saves0
297Total passes594
223Passes accurate524
75%Passes %88%
0.65expected_goals2.57
-1.30goals_prevented-1.30

Stats updated

Match events

  1. 48′Goal · Normal Goal · C. Brittain · Assist: A. Cozier-Duberry Middlesbrough
  2. 50′Goal · Own Goal · Neto Borges Stoke City
  3. 51′Card · Yellow Card · Sebastian Berhalter Middlesbrough Foul
  4. 64′subst · Substitution 1 · S. Berhalter · Assist: R. McGree Middlesbrough
  5. 64′subst · Substitution 2 · J. Sarmiento · Assist: T. Conway Middlesbrough
  6. 67′subst · Substitution 1 · Bae Jun-Ho · Assist: J. Devenny Stoke City
  7. 67′subst · Substitution 2 · L. Cisse · Assist: G. Hirst Stoke City
  8. 68′Card · Yellow Card · Luke Graham Stoke City Foul
  9. 73′Goal · Normal Goal · W. Lankshear Middlesbrough
  10. 78′subst · Substitution 3 · W. Lankshear · Assist: K. Joseph Middlesbrough
  11. 78′subst · Substitution 4 · A. Cozier-Duberry · Assist: M. Arfsten Middlesbrough
  12. 79′subst · Substitution 3 · E. Bocat · Assist: L. Bombino Stoke City
  13. 79′subst · Substitution 4 · J. Tchamadeu · Assist: B. Lawal Stoke City
  14. 79′subst · Substitution 5 · D. Soumare · Assist: R. Bozenik Stoke City
  15. 85′Goal · Normal Goal · R. Bozenik · Assist: G. Hirst Stoke City
  16. 90′Goal · Normal Goal · Neto Borges Middlesbrough

Events updated

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Game statistics

Statistics are not saved for this match yet.

Match events

Match events are not saved for this match yet.

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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

WatfordChampionshipAway2–1Won
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

CardiffChampionshipAway1–1Draw
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

CharltonChampionshipHome4–0Won
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

NorwichChampionshipHome1–0Won
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

WolvesChampionshipAway1–4Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

Hull CityLeague CupHome1–1Draw
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

SouthamptonChampionshipAway1–3Lost
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Statistics and events are not saved locally for this previous fixture.

Scores shown from Stoke City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.

About this prediction

We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 15 seconds.